Thank you for taking part in this survey. This survey is being conducted as a requirement of my Graduate Thesis in International Relations. As I have already explained to you, the individual information that you share in this survey shall be kept confidential and not published by any means. Please, follow the items of this simple questionnaire and answer all of them. Thank you once again.
The world has one Mahmoud Ahmedinejad,
along with one Hugo Chavez
both of them are not taken seriously
by anyone anymore in international fora.
The rise of the extremism and Islamist constitutes a major step backward for modernization and development. Women in the Arab world are seeing their rights reversed, reduced or destroyed. Middle-class businessmen will find it more tremendous to interact with the international economy. Religious minorities, primarily Christians and Bahais in Iran’s case are being subjected to increasing violence and intimidation. When Foggy Bottom simply natters about “cultural contexts,” the signal to the extremists is “full steam ahead.”
The downward spiral in Turkish-Israeli relations is not only an irreversible trend, but also a lose-lose situation for both sides. The two countries are locked in a longterm dispute over Hamas’ role in the region — whereas Turkey’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) views Hamas as a legitimate actor in the Palestinian theater, Israel opposes Hamas’ control of Gaza, and neither side will change its mind soon. This suggests an irreversible trend in bilateral ties that does not bode well for either side, as Turkey and Israel will both lose from the current stalemate. After its establishment in 1948, Israel enjoyed the comfort of having a close ally among the three “civilized countries” in the region: Turkey, Egypt and Iran, representing the Turkish, Arabic and Persian heritage of the Middle East, respectively. Now, however, with Iran and Israel in opposing camps, the Arab Spring and recent dramatic deterioration of Turkish-Israeli ties are presenting Israel with a uniquely threatening security environment. For the first time since 1948, Israel faces the risk of not having one of the three “civilized countries” of the Middle East as its ally. In post-Mubarak Cairo, Israeli-Egyptian ties face their greatest challenge since the two countries made peace in 1978. The outcome of the forthcoming Egyptian elections is far from certain, yet it is very likely that the Muslim Brotherhood will emerge as a power to be reckoned with in the Egyptian polls this fall. Even if the Egyptian military stands for maintaining ties with Israel, the Muslim Brotherhood will push for limiting those ties. Accordingly, Egyptian-Israeli ties will continue to become more cold and tenuous with each passing day. Things are perhaps worse on the Turkish front. Ankara’s September 8 warning that its warships would escort missions to Gaza suggests that not only is Turkey no longer a trusted friend of Israel, but that it has begun to emerge as the key regional actor opposing Israel. For the first time since 1948, the two major states of the Eastern Mediterranean, Turkey and Egypt, could ally against Israel. And for the first time since 1948, Israel faces the challenge of not having a large Middle Eastern power as its friend. In losing Turkey, Israel could also be losing the strategic environment that it has cultivated since it gained independence. Turkey will also suffer losses from the downturn in bilateral ties, if only in a more intangible fashion. In the past decade under the AKP, Ankara has positioned itself as both a regional actor trusted by all sides and as a player on the global stage. This hinges primarily on Ankara’s ability to win the attention of Israelis and Palestinians in the Middle East, as well as position itself as a responsible actor in the international arena. Following these recent developments, it would be far-fetched to say that Israel is likely to heed Turkish advice, or that Ankara has earned a place at the giant’s table when it comes to establishing and maintaining order in Middle East. Additionally, while Turkey has been lauded for balancing its Muslim identity and non-Muslim world politics over the past decade, the continued deterioration of Turkish-Israeli ties will weaken this trend in the region. Furthermore, if Turkey enters a conflict with Israel, Ankara’s grand design to become a game-setter state would be exhausted. Turkey would appear to be a revisionist country that squanders its power in overseas adventures — less like France, unfortunately, and more like Egypt under Nasser. It is ironic and telling that neither Turkish nor Hebrew has a term for lose-lose.
By Soner Cagaptay
Jerusalem Post, September 12, 2011
Thank you for taking part in this survey. My name is Farhad Rezaei and this survey is being conducted as a requirement of my Graduate Thesis in International Relations. As I have already explained to you, the individual information that you share in this survey shall be kept confidential and not published by any means. Please, follow the items of this simple questionnaire and answer all of them. Thank you once again.
انقلاب ها معمولا با هدف توسعه حقوق دموکراتیک شکل می گیرند. پس از ساقط شدن رژیم های قبلی، رهبران انقلاب ها از رهگذر اقزودن بُعدی اجتماعی به انقلاب، به تحکیم مبانی قدرت و توسعه پایگاه حمایت مردمی خویش مبادرت کرده، این امر به معنای تعقیب هدف دشوار اما مردمیِ ریشه کنی فقر و بدبختی است. اما رهبران انقلاب معمولا در نیل به چنین هدفی ناکام می مانند و از اینرو در راستای ماندگار سازی افسانه موفقیت خویش، ناگزیرند تا کسانی را که از ناکامی و شکست این رهبران در راه تحقق وعده های خویش، صحبت به میان می آورند، سرکوب کنند. دیری نمی پاید که انقلاب ها تحلیل میروند و حتی از رژیم های قبلی، سرکوبگرانه تر عمل می کنند.
سرانجام انقلاب اسلامی و تمامی انقلاب های قرن بیستم این گفته هانا آرِنت را تایید می کند.
Most intractable long lasting problem of the Middle East in our lifetimes, which is the Arab-Israeli dispute focused now on the Palestinian issue. The problem is between the Palestinians and the Israel to solve it themselves. But i’m very optimist about the prospects of peace being achieved by Israeli-Palestinian negotiations that are autonomous and self sustained.
If the United States wants progress today, it has to be willing to state openly at least the general parameters of a settlement, and then say, “The rest is up to you as you negotiate the details.” And these four parameters are, first, no right of return for the Palestinians to Israel—a bitter pill for the Palestinians, a very bitter pill. One has to understand what a big, bitter pill this is, because the whole structure of Palestinian identity is built olis is too deep, too big, too emotional, too deeply rooted for then the notion that they were unjustly expelled fromIsrael. Two, real sharing of Jerusalem, a bitter pill for the Israelis. There will be no viable peace if the mosque with the golden dome, if a part of the old city and east Jerusalem, are not the capital of Palestine. The peace will not be viewed as legitimate. There will be no point of departure for reconciliation. Third is the 1967 borders, with mutual adjustments to allow the big urban settlements on the other side of those lines to be incorporated into Israel, and with equitable territorial concessions in Galilee and Negev by the Israelis so that the Palestinians don’t lose any more land. The Israelis and the Palestinians are almost equal in population. Before too long the Palestinians will have more. The Israelis already have seventy-eight percent of the oldPalestine. Palestinians have only twenty-two percent. Fourth is a demilitarized Palestinian state. I have recently proposed that there are American troops along the Jordan River to give Israel a sense of strategic depth against any threat. The rest is up to the parties, but this is what the United States should stand for. I happen to believe that Obama is willing to make the push that’s needed. If not, the next president should do it.
To date, too few Western leaders have taken Iranian leaders like Mahmoud Ahmadinejad or Ali Khamene’i at their word when they say that Israel must disappear from the map and/or the pages of history. And while it is doubtful that Iran has plans to implement the immediate fulfillment of its anti-Israel campaign, there should be little question that the current Iranian government is attempting to establish its hegemony over the region and sees Israel as well as the United States as an impediment that needs to be removed in order to establish that hegemony. The recent visit of Ahmadinejad to Lebanon, and to south Lebanon in particular, should serve to awaken our leaders to the fact that Iran is extending its influence and drawing more nations into its anti-Western axis.
The Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) has consistently used the same tactics for thirty years: it has employed proxies to do its biding. Whether one is considering Hamas, Hizballah, Jihad Islami, al-Qaeda, or the Taliban, it is the IRI that has trained, supplied, and aided both Sunni and Shiite jihadists in its ongoing thirty-plus year war with the West, and continues to do so.
It should not be naively assumed that the Islamist attack against the West will end should the State of Israel disappear from the map. The Islamists’ desire to impose shari‘ah law is not limited to the Dar al-Islam (Islamic world); it is a step in the program of converting the Dar al-Harb (the non-Islamic world) and absorbing it into the Dar al-Islam. Islamists increasingly are moving into an aggressive mode in their belief that they are succeeding in their quest. We need to step out of our own egocentric weltanschauung and begin to comprehend the mindset of the Islamist. Until we comprehend his thinking, we cannot succeed in planning adequately to countermand his plans and objectives.
One of the first things that we need to understand about the Islamist is his sense of history and the direction of its tide. The Islamist believes that history ultimately is on his side; he believes that Islam will eventually prevail and conquer the globe. Total success may require centuries, but he is convinced that Islam is winning. And in terms of sheer numbers of adherents, the Islamist has reason to believe as he does. While western European countries continue to welcome large numbers of Moslem immigrants into their territory without assimilating them into their respective cultures, Islamists throughout Europe and North America have succeeded in radicalizing the mosques and Islamic education centers. When the Ikhwan (the Muslim Brotherhood)’s Supreme Guide, Muhammad Badi‘, can publicly call for Moslems worldwide to join a jihad against the West, we should begin to realize the size and nature of the conflict in which we are being engaged.
The Egyptians, the Arab world and the West should support a better Egypt – respectful of human rights, religious freedom and economic growth with patience, a long-term plan and six rules to gain democracy and not another dictatorship.
1. We must learn from the thinking of Albert Einstein who, in unknown situations like this said: “Imagination is more important than knowledge” and “The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of thinking we were at when we created them”. We need creative foreign and domestic policies with fresh new ideas for the people of Egypt to manage the transition process over the next ten years including all elements and the majority of young people in this country.
2. The number one priority is to avoid a repeat of Iran in 1979/80. What started as a liberation movement from the Shah ended in the worst totalitarian rule in any Islamic state, from hope to nightmare as was accurately described in George Orwell’s famous novella “Animal Farm” in 1945. Never underestimate the drive for total power on the part of determined radicals who start soft but end hard, talk about the nation and freedom but eliminate all other political forces step by step. Nobody should underestimate the strength of the current core-Islamic radical movement of the Muslim Brotherhood, which on the surface seems to be moderate and diverse with elements who see a Turkey as a model and others who have an Islamic dictatorship as a political aim. They are integrated, but at heart promote dreams of a more radical, totalitarian Islamic Republic with no room for the Christian Copts or equal rights for women or democracy. The Brotherhood knows almost nothing about economics and how to stimulate new jobs, foreign investments or tourism. But with its social and grassroots network, it is the only Egypt-wide political movement. It is as unpredictable as the Sphinx in Giza. Would they ever except a multicultural Egypt, including Coptic Christians, or peace in the region?
As Wikipedia states: “The Society of the Muslim Brothers (often simply Al-Ikhwan, The Brotherhood or MB) is an Islamist transnational movement and the largest political opposition organization in many Arab states. It is the world’s oldest and largest Islamic political group,and the “world’s most influential Islamist movement.” It was founded in 1928 in Egypt by the Islamic scholar and Sufi schoolteacher Hassan al-Banna.
The Brotherhood’s stated goal is to instill the Qur’an and Sunnah as the “sole reference point for … ordering the life of the Muslim family, individual, community … and state”. Since its inception in 1928 the movement has officially opposed violent means to achieve its goals, with some exceptions.
The Muslim Brotherhood is banned in Egypt, and members have been arrested for their participation in it. As a means of circumventing the ban, supporters run for office as independents. The Brotherhood condemned terrorism and the 9/11 attack but whether or not it has ties to terrorism is a matter of dispute. Its position on violence has also caused disputes within the movement, with advocates of violence at times breaking away to form groups such as the Al-Gama’a al-Islamiyya (The Islamic Group) and Al Takfir Wal Hijra (Excommunication and Migration).
Among the Brotherhood’s more influential members was Sayyid Qutb. Qutb was the author of one of Islamism’s most important books, Milestones, which called for the restoration of Islam by re-establishing the Sharia and by using “physical power and Jihad for abolishing the organizations and authorities of the Jahili system, which he believed to include the entire Muslim world”.
Should the Muslim Brotherhood reach power, they could emerge like their Hamas friends in the Gaza Strip – as masters of suppression perhaps financed by Tehran, which is praising them already as friends.
This worst-case scenario could develop, like in Iran, with a take-over of power within a few years, initially with a moderate President like Bani Sadr in 1980 and later full control by the radicals.
The world has to analyze the historical power plays of all totalitarian movements in the past– the Nazis in Germany, Stalin in Russia, and Iran – to understand the mechanisms and dangers and how to neutralize them as a real danger for the future of Egypt.
In Germany it took the Nazis a silent 11-year-long power play beginning 1928 when they first achieved real power in the Reichstag to Adolf Hitler’s appointment as Reichskanzler in 1933, the internationally respected Olympic games in 1936 and at the end the start of WWII in 1939 resulting in more than 50 million dead.
Lessons learned?
The danger for Egypt: too inactive, too naïve and a new progressive constitution with a power vacuum now followed by years of compromises with the radical Muslim Brotherhood who in the end take over control. The country must build up a new, diverse and democratic foundation with new moderate political parties and candidates and a new free constitution which guarantees human rights to all as well as a secular Egypt. This is the litmus test for the Muslim Brothers.
3. Mubarak must step down now. Support of a new Government of Unity and Reform with General and now Vice-President Omar Suleiman at the top as the new President. He should be joined by freshman Mohamed ElBaradei as new Prime Minister in charge together as a new dream-team of the most-influential armed forces and the new forces of reform from the streets. Both should invite a new Constitutional Council with wise Egyptians including some from the Muslim Brotherhood to work on a new progressive constitution. This constitution should be agreed to by the end of this year with parliamentary elections by the end of 2012. To stick to Presidential elections in 200 days could be a mistake and continue chaos. A transition periode is needed now and the integration of respected personalities like judges from the high court or professors and business men.
4. Egypt needs to discuss the human codes of tolerance (see www.codesoftolerance.com) and the real nature of the peaceful and merciful Islam, to promote what the Prophet really wanted and to isolate the unbelievers who promote the killing of innocent people. It does not need repression but an open debate including the rights of the Christian Copts, who make up 10 percent of the population. Egypt needs to return to the aim of the Prophet, which was to create a society ofhilm. The Muslims had to pray and live together in peace to preserve the ummah. If attacked, they could defend themselves, but instead of lashing out in the old, uncontrolled jahili way, they must always be prepared to forgive an injury. Automatic, vengeful retaliation – the cardinal duty of muruwah – could be great evil. ‘Hence, whoever pardons (his foe) and makes peace, his reward rests with God’, the Quar’an insisted tirelessly. ‘If one is patient in adversity and forgives – this, behold, is indeed something to set one’s heart upon’ (Quran’an 59:21) The old spirit of jahiliyyah is in too many hearts of the Egyptians. When the Aws and Khazraj tribes again began to attack each other Muhammad hurried to the scene in great distress. ‘Are you still tempted by the call of jahiliyyah when I am here among you?’ he demanded. ‘When God has guided you … honored you, and cut off thereby the bond of jahiliyyah from you, delivered you from the state of defiant ingratitude (kufr), and made you friends of each other’(Ibn Ishaq, Sirat Rasul Allah, 386, translation in Izutsu, Ethico-Religious Concepts, 29). Egypt should lead the Islamic rebirth in a positive way of harmony and respect towards other religions.
5. The U.S.A. and Israel should keep the greatest distance from this process, with other Islamic states and the Europeans on the front. But where is the EU? Where is the Arab League? Israel must start a fresh policy of détente and a new double-strategy of power and reconciliation as NATO did versus the USSR with its successful Harmel-Report from 1967 and the German “Ostpolitik” of Willy Brandt. Other Arab states must start a reform process to avoid implosions of their states like in Tunesia and Egypt. What is needed is a responsible elite serving their country and people, rather than the egos of a few rich. They must integrate the Facebook children into society and the too many poor people behind the shadow of new skyscrapers.
6. Egypt cannot become a perfect Westminster-style democracy over night in 24 hours. It needs 20-30 years to develop a real democratic system but should start on this long and painful walk now.
Let’s support the freedom process in Egypt with patience and with realism and alertness, opposing the forces of totalitarianism cloaked under the cover of democracy to avoid a hijacking of the pro-democracy protests as happened in Iran in the 1980s.
